It usually starts with the one everyone believes is too strong to fail.

Which supermarket chain could become tomorrow’s highest credit risk in the Greek retail market?

I have an opinion.

But I won’t name names.

Because while many focus on size, I focus on the warning signs.

When assessing a retail chain that:

● operates with consistently low profitability,

● distributes most of its earnings to shareholders,

● maintains relatively high leverage despite generating strong cash sales,

● pursues acquisitions with uncertain integration risks,

● expands into business models outside its core expertise,

● may be losing experienced executives,

● and feels the need to constantly reassure suppliers of its financial strength…

…size alone is no longer enough to make me feel comfortable.

One of the fundamental principles of credit risk assessment is that the larger the organization, the larger the potential impact of a strategic mistake.

Let’s not forget that exactly ten years ago, Marinopoulos delivered the most expensive credit risk lesson the Greek market has experienced in decades.

Around 3,000 suppliers discovered that “too big to fail” was never a credit assessment.

It was wishful thinking.

A misconception that ultimately cost the market approximately €800 million.

The biggest credit failures rarely happen when a company looks weak.

They happen when everyone is convinced it is invincible.

That is why, in my opinion, the most dangerous sentence in Greek wholesale trade is:

“Don’t worry… they’re a major customer.”